Time series analysis of shared moped usage: A case study of Valencia

English

Abstract

The concept of transport sharing is a logistics strategy that involves the multiple use of transport resources by individuals, organizations, or clients. The goal of this approach is to achieve economic efficiency, reduce operational costs and improve the overall sustainability of the transport system. In the European cities, especially in Valencia, moped sharing shows significant growing trends under the influence of various factors, such as seasonal changes and weather conditions. The focus of the research is the time series analysis of moped usage in Valencia from July 5, 2021, to June 24, 2024. We analyzed weekly data from the three leading companies in Valencia provided by Fluctuo. The goal was to identify key trends and influences that shape the use of these services. The methodological procedure includes the time series analysis using four different SARIMA models with external regressors, to assess seasonal variations and determine the influence of external factors on the use of mopeds. The results showed that seasonal changes and festivals have a significant influence on moped usage.